Arabs Hope Unity Can Avert War, Chances Seen Slim

01/03/2003| IslamWeb

Arab leaders meeting in Egypt on Saturday will try to bridge long-standing rifts and forge a unified policy on Iraq they hope can prevent a U.S.-led war in the volatile region. As Washington continues its massive troop build-up in the Gulf amid warnings to Iraq to disarm or face war, the one-day summit of the 22-member Arab League will try to find a peaceful solution to the crisis. The meeting is due to begin around 4 a.m. EST.

Draft Declaration Includes Rejection of Strike Against Iraq

The leaders will discuss a draft declaration, which delegates have said includes a rejection of a strike against Iraq as well as a possible call on Arab states to refrain from participating in a war.

But analysts doubt Arab leaders have the leverage to influence either Iraq or the United States, even if they can paper over differences among the deeply divided members, who range from long-time U.S. allies to states Washington calls sponsors of terrorism.

While Arab states oppose war and fear its repercussions on their domestic stability and economies, analysts say they have a limited ability to make their disapproval felt.

Oil producers have made clear they will not use the oil weapon, nor will U.S. allies who rely on Washington's support and protection try to exert influence by taking the domestically popular step of kicking out U.S. troops, analysts say.

Lowest Common Denominator

With 22 views to take into account, analysts say the summit conclusions will boil down to the lowest common denominator.
"My expectation for the summit isn't much. They will try to postpone a war as much as possible in the hope that opportunities will arise to end the crisis," said Abdel-Moneim Said, head of Egypt's al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.

Some Gulf Arab states, such as Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, host U.S. forces and may be springboards for a war. Saudi Arabia has also been home to U.S. forces since the 1991 Gulf War.

Egypt, a major U.S. aid recipient, has increasingly put the onus of averting a war on Baghdad. Syria, which Washington says sponsors terrorism, has strongly opposed a war on its doorstep, saying U.S. targets in the Middle East extend beyond Iraq.

Delegates said the Arab leaders might also discuss the possibility of sending envoys to Baghdad, Washington and other key capitals to explain their views in hopes of averting war.

They said the foreign ministers had already agreed on draft resolutions on a number of other topics, including renewed support for a Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation.

Arab states fear a war against Iraq could destabilize the volatile region, and some are worried it could just be the first U.S. step toward a wider regional shake-up. Arabs are also concerned about a possible popular backlash against war, as well as the economic repercussions of conflict.

PHOTO CAPTION

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, right, listens to Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah as he arrives at Sharm el-Sheik, Egypt, airport Friday, Feb. 28, 2003. (AP Photo/Amr