Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) began forming a government on Monday after a spectacular election triumph that will raise deep concerns in a secularist establishment wary of the party's Islamist roots. Muslim NATO member Turkey's closest ally, the United States, will be eager to see a new cabinet in office in about two weeks, the minimum time it will take to form a new government.

Washington would look to Ankara for support in providing air bases and other facilities for any attack on neighboring Iraq.

The unexpected scale of AKP's victory, routing parties blamed by voters for a grueling economic crisis, will test the AKP itself. Founded only a year ago, it has little experience of power, faces a court case to outlaw it and has a leader banned by the courts from taking up any government post.

The Sabah daily called the AKP victory a revolt by the country's increasingly impoverished Anatolian heartland against the political old guard based in Ankara and Istanbul.

"Politics has never seen such a widespread liquidation operation," it said.

Projections gave the party more than 360 seats in a 550-seat assembly. Only one other party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), mustered the 10 percent vote needed to enter parliament.

Veteran Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, his fifth term in office drawing to a close, saw his party's vote sink from 22 percent in 1999 to little over one percent.

While many were euphoric over the dramatic demise of the old order, there were also misgivings.

"The AKP isn't ready to govern Turkey alone and I'm not sure even they wanted that," said Rusen Cakir, author of a book on AKP leader and former Islamist firebrand Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"To govern alone they really need time to prepare, gain legitimacy and stature on the domestic and international stage."
But AKP, which vehemently rejects the Islamist label, will not have the luxury of time.

Turkey needs to quickly establish market confidence and safeguard a 16 billion dlrs IMF pact. Urgent issues must be tackled in the coming month in pursuit of Turkey's European Union membership ambitions.

Erdogan was quoted by one daily on Monday as saying he would send envoys to the EU immediately, before forming a government.

Party sources say the AKP is in the process of drawing up a cabinet list that it will present to President Ahmet Necdet Sezer as soon as possible after he asks them to form a government.

The Turkish lira, down more than 50 percent against the dollar since a 2001 crisis, sank to all time lows of over 1.7 million in early trading on Monday before bouncing back. Stocks rose up to seven percent.

"The issue of confidence is going to be a problem," said Philip Poole, senior emerging markets economist at ING Barings investment bank in London. "The issue of bringing down interest rates and attracting investment will be key."

Sezer must await official results in four days before formally inviting the AKP to form a government.

Erdogan, banned from the polls and thereby from government because of a past conviction for Islamist sedition, will chair a meeting on Tuesday to agree a candidate for prime minister.

MAKING FRIENDS IN THE ESTABLISHMENT

In the meantime Ecevit will lead a caretaker cabinet.

The secularist establishment -- the army, state apparatus and judiciary -- will watch Erdogan's progress keenly for any sign of Islamist tendencies. But the generals, a force in Turkish politics, are unlikely to make any public declarations.

"This result will worry a lot of people. The army will wait and see," said one Western diplomat. "But at least in the short term, Erdogan seems to be going out of his way to dispel any notion of conflict or Islamism."

Erdogan has learned from the fate of Turkey's first Islamist government, forced out after a year by an army-led pressure campaign. The process, conducted without tanks or guns, became known as the "postmodern coup" or "fine-tuning of democracy."

Erdogan has his frictions with the establishment.

The constitutional court is slowly weighing a case to outlaw the party on the grounds it breached laws on forming parties. Erdogan also faces trial on charges of illegal earnings dating back to his days as Istanbul mayor.

CHP chief Deniz Baykal said he was resigned to working as sole opposition in the first two-party parliament in 40 years.

Some analysts were encouraged by Erdogan's vows of loyalty to the IMF program and the prospect of a new start.

"This is the liquidation of a whole political class," said Tolga Ediz of Lehman Brothers investment bank. "The electorate has voted to change the system. That is very positive."

The AKP, formed from the "modern" wing of a party banned last year for Islamist militancy, is itself something of a coalition. Pious but politically secularist members rub shoulders with a small minority that would gladly see religious doctrine applied in politics and law.

PHOTO CAPTION

Justice and Development Party (AKP) Leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L), flanked by his deputy Abdullah Gul (R) waves to his party supporters from the balcony of his party headquarters in Ankara, early November 4, 2002, after his party claimed victory in Turkish elections. AKP began forming a government on Monday after a spectacular election win that poses painful challenges to a secularist establishment wary of the party's Islamist roots. (Stringer/Turkey/Reuters)