In a production the White House might have borrowed from Hollywood, President Bush will tell the Americans that to all intents and purposes the war in Iraq is over in a 9 p.m. EDT speech to the nation from the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln, a vessel vital in the air war against Iraq, which has been at sea four months past the usual six-month deployment. Bush is flying to the USS Abraham Lincoln as it returns to San Diego to deliver what, in everything but name, is a victory speech. He will arrive on the carrier not by F-15 or F-18 jet (precluded by navy flight safety regulations) but on a more modest twin-engined turboprop aircraft. Bush, once a fighter pilot in the Texas Air National Guard, will make the dramatic arrival on the Lincoln aboard sitting up front next to the pilot, the plane will be caught on the carrier's flight deck by a cable, a sudden stop that can sometimes be stomach-churning. The White House has asked US television networks to carry the speech live. It will be a rare experience for Bush because presidents who visit aircraft carriers usually arrive by helicopter. "Stand clear of the landing pad," Bush joked to reporters on Wednesday. But the event will be no less of a media spectacular for that. Last night, frantic preparations for the eminent visitor were under way on the Abraham Lincoln. Never before has a president addressed his country from an aircraft carrier at sea. In his appearance, scheduled for 9pm prime time on the East Coast, Bush will stop short of using the word "victory". Instead he will announce – after receiving advice from General Tommy Franks, the US commander who ran the war – that "major combat operations" have ended. A new phase, the reconstruction of Iraq, has begun, the President will say. The circumspection is deliberate. For one thing, pockets of resistance remain, as two days of fighting between US troops and protesters in the city of Fallujah – in which at least 15 Iraqis were killed – have shown. Almost daily anti-American protests are reported, while basic services are only gradually being restored and a humanitarian crisis threatens in parts of the country. Furthermore, there is the faxed message to an Arabic-language newspaper in London, purportedly signed by Saddam Hussein and announcing a future speech, American searchers have failed to establish whether he was killed by the second targeted air strike against him, on 7 April, or whether he is in hiding, probably in Baghdad. Thirdly, by avoiding a formal statement that the fighting is over, President Bush will give American forces more latitude on the ground. Under the Geneva conventions, the victor must release prisoners of war and cease operations aimed at individual enemy leaders. The decision to give the speech aboard the aircraft carrier followed an internal White House debate on whether it should be delivered before Congress or outside Washington. Republicans saw political advantage in the way the White House finally decided to do it. "It's a political trifecta. It's out of Washington, it's in the military and it's off the coast of the Golden State," said Republican consultant Scott Reed. The Abraham Lincoln leads one of the five supercarrier groups that took part in the war. There are nine such carriers in all, symbols par excellence of American ability to project massive power to any corner of the globe. The ship alone can cost 4bn dollars (£2.5bn); a single carrier group, flanked by missile-carrying cruisers and guarded by nuclear submarines, packs more firepower than the entire armed forces of many developed countries. The stage management of tonight's address is also part of Bush's domestic strategy, as he gears up for the 2004 election campaign. With the economy faltering and his tax-cut plans in trouble on Capitol Hill, his advisers are counting heavily on the President's perceived competence on national security issues. In that sense too, the backdrop of the Abraham Lincoln is ideal for Bush, whose approval rating is once more over 70 per cent. At the end of the 1991 Gulf War, his father hailed the event with a restrained address from the Oval Office. But George H W Bush failed to use his popularity as a war leader to drive through his domestic agenda. The result was electoral defeat by Bill Clinton 18 months later. The son aboard the aircraft carrier is determined not to make the same mistake. **PHOTO CAPTION*** George W. Bush (Reuters)