Iraq faces the distinct possibility of collapse and fragmentation, UK foreign policy think tank Chatham House says.

Its report says the Iraqi government is now largely powerless and irrelevant in many parts of the country.

It warns there is not one war but many local civil wars, and urges a major change in US and British strategy, such as consulting Iraq's neighbours more.

The report comes as Iran said Iranian and US diplomats would hold talks on 28 May on the security situation in Iraq.

Meanwhile, the UK Foreign Office stated that security conditions, although "grim" in places, varied across Iraq.

"Most insurgent attacks remain concentrated in just four of Iraq's 18 provinces, containing less than 42% of the population," a Foreign Office spokesman told the Press Association news agency.

"Iraq has come a long way in a short time," he added, saying the international community "must stand alongside the Iraqi government".

'Harsh realities'

It is not the first time that the Royal Institute for International Affairs - a highly respected foreign policy institution in London known as Chatham House - has been critical of American and British strategies in Iraq.

This latest paper, written by Gareth Stansfield, a Middle East expert, is unremittingly bleak, says BBC diplomatic correspondent James Robbins.

Stansfield, of Exeter University and Chatham House, argues that the break-up of Iraq is becoming increasingly likely.

In large parts of the country, the Iraqi government is powerless, he says, as rival factions struggle for local supremacy.

The briefing paper, entitled Accepting Realities in Iraq, says: "There is not 'a' civil war in Iraq, but many civil wars and insurgencies involving a number of communities and organisations struggling for power."

Stansfield says that although al-Qaeda is challenged in some areas by local leaders who do not welcome such intervention, there is a clear momentum behind its activity.

Iraq's neighbours also have a greater capacity to affect the situation on the ground than either the UK or the US, the report adds.

US-Iran talks

On Thursday, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said that US-Iranian discussions at ambassador level would take place in Iraq on 28 May.

"Nothing but Iraq is on the agenda," he told reporters at a conference in Islamabad, Pakistan.

American and Iranian officials have held talks at ambassador level in the past. There were discussions in Baghdad in March and brief exchanges at a summit in Egypt earlier this month.

But this will be the most significant meeting between representatives of the two countries since the Iranian revolution in 1979, the BBC's James Shaw in Baghdad says.

Given the climate of suspicion and hostility which has existed between Iran and the US, it is doubtful that the talks stand any chance of yielding quick or substantial results, our correspondent says.

Washington accuses Iran of arming Shia militants in Iraq.

Tehran says American and other coalition forces should be withdrawn from Iraq.

BBC